How Predictable is the Market?

How Predictable is the Market?

Both rookies and seasoned real estate investors believe the real estate market to be cyclical in both pricing and predictability and that the market can be “timed.” Experts say there are two cycles, annual and multi-year, which drive the market. Annual cycles are based on seasonal home sales and seem to be somewhat predictable.

Multi-year cycles are based on the conviction that home prices rise, peak, and stabilize based on fixed cycles. Such cycles are location-based and housing prices are not always rational. For example, home prices might have a history of consistent growth over the past few years in a given city, however, the future remains unknown and we are always susceptible to economic surprises and demographic changes.

There are several variables that affect change within the market regardless of past cycles of success. Major changes to our economy certainly have an impact as such changes are reflected in higher interest rates and decreases in the demand for housing. If the overall income of a particular local increases due to the placement of a new company, for example, home prices are bound to rise alongside demand as cash begins to flow more freely. The construction of new parks or the addition of a new neighborhood school has the power to increase property values significantly. Changes pertaining to demography are particularly fascinating when neighborhoods are overtaken by real estate investors and homes are turned into rentals rather than sales, sometimes resulting in decreased property values.

Related: “Boomers Continue to Bloom Where Planted”

Related: “Age Demographics & Market Value”

Historical property values are a great resource for those wishing to educate themselves regarding market cycles. While patterns will likely be detected, they should never be the primary basis for selling your home or buying a new house. Market patterns do not pertain to specific properties and you should always do your homework before making any major decisions. At the end of the day, the market does ebb and flow and the cycles are somewhat predictable, however, they are fallible and do not apply in all situations.


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Phil Aitken, Owner/Broker
Phil Aitken is the Owner/Broker with Your Home Sold Guaranteed Realty - Phil Aitken Home Team and has over 13 years of Real Estate experience. Phil’s faith and desire for his family’s continued security fuel his business growth and leadership. The Phil Aitken Home Team continues to profoundly impact the people of Jacksonville via supporting several faith-based organizations. Phil gives back a portion of every real estate transaction to The Tim Tebow Foundation and Rethreaded. Find Phil's full story here.